Monday, 21 April 2014

Not as easy as it looks this hands business

in the last post, I had a look at a hypothetical situation with the Premier League looking like this before the last day of the season.

Liverpool, played 37,  86 points, vastly superior goal difference.
Chelsea, played 37, 84 points, vastly inferior goal difference.
Man City, played 37, 82 points.

Liverpool play Stoke.
Chelsea play Hull.

This gave me nine possible result combinations:

1. Liverpool win, Chelsea win
2. Liverpool win, Chelsea draw
3. Liverpool win, Chelsea lose
4. Liverpool draw, Chelsea win
5. Liverpool draw Chelsea draw
6. Liverpool draw, Chelsea lose
7. Liverpool lose, Chelsea win
8. Liverpool lose, Chelsea draw
9. Liverpool lose, Chelsea lose

and I ended up saying the title was in:

Liverpool's hands: 12/18
Hull's hands: 4/18
Stoke's hands: 1/18
Chelsea's hands: 1/18

Possible error
I think I may have made an error here, because I put the first six possibilities in Liverpool's hands. However,  possibilities 2, 3, 5 and 6 are just as much under the influence of Hull's hands as they are under Liverpool's.

Adjusting the results for this error, we have to say that 2, 3 5 and 6 give an eighteenth to both Liverpool and Hull, making a net change of -4/18 for Liverpool and +4/18 for Hull. This gives us a final result of the title being in:

Liverpool's hands: 8/18
Hull's hands: 8/18
Stoke's hands: 1/18
Chelsea's hands: 1/18

What do you think about that?

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